china's copper imports this year, demand will grow by 5% -凯发k8官网下载客户端中心

beijing march 25, 2014 morning news, barclays analyst gayle berry (gayle berry) recently released research report, this year china's net imports of copper demand will grow by 5%. the report notes that in this demand, the proportion of refined copper will be reduced, while the proportion of copper concentrate will be increased, because of its domestic production increased.

we believe that china's net imports of copper demand to grow 5% this year, in which the proportion of refined copper will be reduced, while the proportion of copper concentrate will be increased, because of its domestic production increased.

we expect that this year china's copper imports will further shift from the metal plate materials sector. domestic refined copper production is likely to grow strongly, for reasons which will capitalize on the growth in the supply of refined copper from new and old copper mine scale brings, as well as refined copper into the total cost of refined copper (tc / rc ) rises brought about stronger pricing irritating factors. last year, we expect the implied demand for imports of refined copper is 260 million tons, while actual import volume is slightly higher than the expected 278 million tonnes.

this year's chinese import demand for copper, we expect copper concentrate import demand will grow implied a quarter to nearly 3.4 million tons; in terms of percentage growth or from growth in tonnage, it will set a new history record.

in contrast, china's imports of refined copper demand may fall by 15% this year, to 230 million barrels, because by two factors: 1) the growth performance of china's domestic production of refined copper is very strong, and we expect this year growth rate will reach 16%; the growth rate of 2) demand is slowing, we expect this year's growth rate will be 7%. however, refined copper imports will depend on the actual number of the inventory cycle and price signals.

for example, at the end of 2013, china's refined copper imports exceeded demand, resulting in increased inventory, inventory and this upward trend continued into early 2014. for now, pricing signals, the inventory cycle (bonded warehouse inventory levels higher) as well as the financing needs have been weakened mean, refined copper imports may fall sharply in the near term.

but in our opinion, this does not mean china will be weakened in 2014 imports of copper demand. in fact, the situation will be just the opposite: we expected this year, china's imports of copper demand will further grow by 5%, but the impetus will come from the urgent market demand for raw materials, rather than the demand for metals. in anticipation of the global copper supply growth, the market demand for raw materials will account for a large part.